The policy adopted by Donald Trump towards the Middle East region can be simply characterized by his dependence on what he calls “allies”. So far, those “allies” have been leading the Trump administration from one quagmire to another with their “direct” or proxy wars launched all over the region. Trump has no problem with his “allies” adventures as long as they are paying, and as long as their waged wars are streaming to the Conservatives ultimate goal of a “greater Middle East” of mini-national, sectarian and religious states.
Trump Allies are topped by Israel with the Gulf monarchies: Qatar, the UAE and the Saudi Kingdom in the middle to play the role of spear head. There are also other subordinate allies playing almost minor and neutral roles in the US ME policy. “War-Triggers” is the best description that can be given to the main category of Trump “allies”. This main “allies” category range in extremism from the far right, represented by the Jewish state of Israel, Turkey and the Saudi Kingdom, up to the far left represented by the Kurdish numerous factions.
By virtue of their nature, the Gulf monarchies originally serve their “interests” regardless whether those “interests” would serve the ultimate goals of the United States.
There is one fundamental difference between the strategies adopted by the two main US allies in the ME: the Saudi Kingdom and Erdogan’s AK Party-Turkey. The Saudis prefer the technique of pouring cash to conflict and proxy war mongers, that is, the Saudi monarchs always prefer the role of a financer and fund raiser. The Saudis pay, arm and finance while Erdogan provides an active air and fire-power cover together with logistic support to Jihadi groups rolling either through his borders with the targeted state, in the case of Syria, or sailing through sea routes as Erdogan is doing these days to support the government he believes to be “legitimate” in Libya. This includes those Jihadis relocation and redeployment in accordance with to Erdogan priorities, thus, moving them from Syria to Libya when necessary. Qatar is a Gulf monarchy aligned with the US ever since its birth. The Qatari line of monarchy has its own strategies and Jihadi tools, mainly the (Moslem Brotherhood) to carry out Doha agenda which goes parallel to Saudi agendas but differs in tools and techniques.
The past few months of Trump reign in the White House have witnessed the supposedly-Republican President moving to a tyrant figure under the name of Caesar which depicts his approved technique of exercising pressure on any part of the world that does not yield to his wishes. As far as Trump is concerned, the Saudi monarchs have been paying dearly for their series of ambitious mistakes beginning with their responsibility for the 9/11 events. In this respect, Trump made it crystal clear that what really matters for him is that MBS keeps on doing the same as his predecessors of pouring enough “cash” to the US treasury. Then, MBS has all the green light and US support to go on with the Saudi series of proxy wars in the ME. Actually what Trump does his best to ignore is the fact that the whole ME region is paying a heavy price for MBS ill-ambitions topped by the Yemeni quagmire.
The policies of Trump “allies” in the region can only be characterized by their catastrophic consequences which have been visible for the past nine years so far. From Libya to Egypt, Iraq, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria, there is this long list of bores of tension going up and down in accordance with how much do those “allies” pour of cash to whatever organization or Jihadi group that would launch wars and erupt sectarian struggles on their behalf. Thus, the region has been full of mini and large size conflicts depending on the manpower of the militias paid, armored and deployed by Trump “allies” who include in their ranks the Erdogan regime with its own agenda for the revival of his Sultan dream. Turkey has been pursuing an ambitious foreign policy strategy in the Middle East and North Africa MENA region ever since Erdogan assumed power with his AK Party. So far, Turkey has been a key player in leading and fuelling proxy wars in Syria and Libya through Erdogan’s support to whatever militia group that volunteers to work for his ambitious Othmani agenda. These proxy wars and supports to jihadi militias are part and parcel of a Turkish bid aiming at the re-shaping of regional politics and security. In this context, Erdogan has never been hesitant in taking the chance, whenever available, and using his military and the Jihadi manpower to best serve his aims. Erdogan has been doing his best to break up with each and every Turkish foreign policy witnessed so far, just like what he is doing these days with Hagia Sophia. As a founding NATO member, Erdogan has to keep the geopolitical balance standing between the United States on the one side and Russia on the other, with the European Union right in the middle regardless of the EU’s disapproval of the Turkish role in nourishing the series of proxy wars launched alongside the Middle East. As the region experiences a generational transformation, Turkish foreign policy is undergoing a qualitative change, which requires sophisticated analysis and understanding.
Trump “allies” are merely “loose-cannons” erupting fires in the ME. One thing for sure is the fact that the world will not approve, or even stand, what Trump is keeping in his Pandora box for the last months of his tenure in office. The more horrible the items coming out of this Pandora box, the more certain the world can be that Trump days in the White House are almost over. The magician has saved all the most-vicious tricks to his final days in power.